September brings the start of the Autumn for the NE Atlantic/NW Europe region but it is mid-hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic. 2020 remains on pace to be a record breaking season with 13 named storms and 4 hurricanes formed before 1st September for the first time since records began in 1851. It is increasingly likely that 2020 will overtake the 2005 season; the most active in the past 169 years with 12 named storms and 4 hurricanes by the same date. We have already seen significant damage, disruption and unfortunately, a number of fatalities associated with this season.
The 10th September is the most common date for a named system to be somewhere in the Atlantic basin so we will soon see if this is the case this year. At the moment we have Tropical Depression 15 off the US east coast; a well organised tropical wave moving east across the central Caribbean Sea. The NHC, Miami gives this an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression before it reaches Central America on Wednesday night. There are also a few waves further east over central Africa with the next wave due to emerge off the coast in the coming day or so. The NHC assess this has a 40% chance of developing in to a system over the next 5 days.
Leaving hurricanes, but staying in the Atlantic, the UK Met Office, along with partners Met Éireann (Ireland) and KNMI (Netherlands) revealed yesterday the list of storm names for the UK, Ireland and Netherlands for the coming winter season. Now into its sixth year, the ‘Name our Storms’ collaboration has been helping to raise awareness of the potential impacts of severe weather before it arrives in the region. Similar to previous years, the 2020/2021 list has been compiled from names suggested by the public along with names that reflect the diversity of the three nations. From 1st September, the first storm to impact the UK, Ireland and/or the Netherlands will be named ‘Aiden’, while the second storm will be ‘Bella’. As in previous years, Q, U, X, Y and Z will not be used, to comply with the international storm naming conventions.