A sight not so sought after by many along the US Gulf of Mexico coastline, with memories of Tropical Storm Cristobal around this same time last year, we currently have Invest 92L, as an area of convection within the Bay of Campeche.
Gradual development is possible as this system remains fairly stationary along the Mexican coast, and will eventually drift northward with the potential for consolidating into a tropical depression in the next few days.
Fig 1. Two Day and Five day Outlook, courtesy NOAA NHC
As of the 15 June 1200z outlook from the National Hurricane Center, this system has a 20% chance of development in the next two days, which quickly increases to 70% within the five day outlook, as shown in Fig. 1.
Fig 2: Tropical Depression Probabilities – Extended range forecast, courtesy of ECMWF
Fig 3: Tropical Storm Probabilities – Extended range forecast, courtesy of ECMWF
Furthermore, the above images (Fig 2 and 3) help visualize the probability of tropical depression and tropical storm development, respectively, with upwards of 80-90% probability of a tropical depression developing according to the 14 June 0000Z run of the ECMWF. This lines up with NOAA NHC, aiding the confidence of Invest 92L becoming a tropical depression. Fig. 3 shows Invest 92L could also strengthen to a tropical storm, but likelihood is greatly diminished to 10-20%.
Fig 4. Track and minimum MSLP (mb) for Invest 92L, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
General consensus shows the anticipated track of Invest 92L to head northward into Central US Gulf (within the vicinity of SW Pass) in accordance with the GEFS (Fig. 4), with a few outliers taking the system Northwestward (and the one outlier to the South).
Fig 5. Model Intensity for Invest 92L, courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
However, Invest 92L is not expected to strengthen as much as TS Cristobal did this time last year, with most model data suggesting the system remains below Tropical Storm strength – see Fig 5.
Tropical Storm Bill
Further north, near 40.5N/62.0W as of 15/1500z, Tropical Storm Bill continues to move very quickly to the northeast at approximately 33kts. Bill is expected to become a post-tropical low later this evening and dissipate by Wednesday.
Fig 6. Location and probable track of Tropical Storm Bill, courtesy of NOAA NHC
Fig 7. Five Day Outlook for all systems Fleetweather is currently monitoring in the North Atlantic, courtesy of NOAA NHC
Finally, there’s a new tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Cabo Verde Islands (94L), moving westward. Based on Fig. 7, development from this tropical wave for the next five days remains low, with formation at 10%, due to a combination of dry air and the Saharan Dust Layer aloft and strong upper-level winds as the wave progresses westward into the central Atlantic.
Stay tuned to get our updates. Meanwhile, stay safe and connected.